The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league’s 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I’ll be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s opportunity to score fantasy points, or his “expected” fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league-average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player’s actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it’s touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 10 OFP Leaderboard:
Week 10 OFP Leaderboard
|1. Nick Chubb, RB||14||34||-20|
|2. Tyreek Hill, WR||33||33||0|
|3. Dalvin Cook, RB||31||30||1|
|4. Christian McCaffrey, RB||26||29||-3|
|5. Michael Thomas, WR||28||27||1|
|6. Brian Hoyer, QB||6||26||-20|
|7. Josh Allen, QB||25||25||0|
|8. Eric Ebron, TE||11||25||-14|
|9. Darius Slayton, WR||34||23||11|
|10. Amari Cooper, WR||32||23||9|
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
Exceeded their OFP by the largest margin in Week 10
|1. Christian Kirk, WR||38||17||20|
|2. Daniel Jones, QB||30||14||16|
|3. Derrick Henry, RB||33||17||16|
|4. Aaron Jones, RB||27||12||15|
|5. Lamar Jackson, QB||33||21||13|
|6. Patrick Mahomes, QB||30||18||12|
|7. Mecole Hardman, WR||13||2||11|
|8. Darius Slayton, WR||34||23||11|
|9. Christian Jones, Other||13||3||10|
|10. Golden Tate, WR||23||13||10|
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn’t be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
Fell short of their OFP by the largest margin in Week 10
|1. Nick Chubb, RB||14||34||-20|
|2. Brian Hoyer, QB||6||26||-20|
|3. Eric Ebron, TE||11||25||-14|
|4. Jaylen Samuels, RB||7||17||-10|
|5. Odell Beckham Jr., WR||11||20||-10|
|6. Zach Pascal, WR||5||14||-9|
|7. Kalen Ballage, RB||9||17||-9|
|8. Danny Amendola, WR||7||15||-9|
|9. Nyheim Hines, RB||8||17||-8|
|10. Philip Rivers, QB||10||18||-8|
David Johnson returned from injury and was on the field for 45% of the offensive snaps on Sunday. That’s compared to 63% for Kenyan Drake. Neither back had much success against Tampa Bay’s shutdown run defense. Johnson totaled 10 yards on six touches and Drake managed 41 yards on 16 touches. The efficiency will be better in easier matchups, but the key takeaway here is that, at least for now, Arizona has turned to a committee attack led by Drake. The ex-Dolphin is the preferred fantasy play, but neither should be viewed as anything more than a flex against San Francisco in Week 11. This backfield has the makings of a major headache with Chase Edmonds also due back in the next few weeks.
Devonta Freeman went down with an injury after 27 snaps on Sunday, which opened the door for Brian Hill to see the field for 36 plays. Hill was extremely busy, handling 20 carries and a pair of targets in the upset victory. With Ito Smith on injured reserve, Kenyon Barner limited to nine snaps and Qadree Ollison glued to the bench Sunday, it appears clear that Hill will be the feature back if Freeman misses time. Hill was already an attractive handcuff stash and will push for RB2 value if called on to start. Note that Freeman had produced four top-15 fantasy weeks in his five games prior to Sunday.
Marquise Brown got back on track a bit on Sunday, producing 80 yards and one touchdown on four targets. The touchdown was Brown’s fourth of the season, though only his second since Week 1. Similarly, Brown reached 80 yards for the third time this season, but for the first time since Week 2. Brown has reached 17 fantasy points in three games, but he has seen five or fewer targets and has played less than 58% of the snaps in three-straight games. Brown’s 18 snaps in Week 10 were his fewest since he played 12 in Week 1. Brown’s big-play ability keeps him in the flex discussion, but he’s a boom/bust asset with one career top-12 fantasy week to his name.
A week after exploding for 140 yards and a score on 23 touches, Devin Singletary returned to earth with 50 yards on 11 touches against Cleveland on Sunday. The good news is that Singletary was on the field for 69% of the offensive snaps, which more than doubled Frank Gore’s 31% share. Singletary was targeted seven times in the game and now has three-plus catches in three consecutive games. Singletary, who is averaging 6.4 yards per carry, is the clear lead back in Buffalo, and though he’ll occasionally lose a goal-line score to Gore, the rookie remains in the top-25 mix in fantasy. He’s an RB2 lock at Miami this week.
DJ Moore went for nine receptions for 120 yards on 11 targets at Green Bay on Sunday. Moore has now produced 100-plus yards in back-to-back games and has managed 73 or more receiving yards in six of his nine games this season. He sits no lower than 13th among wide receivers in routes, targets, receptions and receiving yardage. Touchdowns, however, remain a major problem area for Moore; he has one this season (2.1 OTD) after scoring twice during his entire rookie campaign. Scoring aside, Moore is quietly enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign in which he’s been targeted at least eight times in seven of nine games. He should be locked into lineups as a high-floor WR2.
Mitch Trubisky tossed three touchdowns on only 23 pass attempts against Detroit on Sunday. It marks Trubisky’s third game this season with at least two touchdowns, though he has exactly zero scores in the other three full games. Week 10 marked Trubisky’s first weekly finish better than 12th this season after he finished the 2018 season 11th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. Trubisky ranks dead last in yards per completion (9.1) and yards per attempt (5.8) among qualified quarterbacks and is on pace for 15 total touchdowns after managing 27 last season. He remains well off the fantasy radar except as a deep-league streamer when the matchup is very good (as it was on Sunday).
Despite getting crushed by the Ravens, the Bengals turned to an extremely run-heavy attack in Week 10. Joe Mixon benefited with 30 carries to go along with three targets. Mixon put up a season-high 151 yards, though he failed to find the end zone. Incredibly, Mixon has three touchdown receptions, but no rushing scores this season. His 5.3 OTD and seven carries inside the opponent’s 5 yard line suggest more touchdowns are on the way, but it’s hard to expect much in a Bengals’ offense sitting 29th in touchdowns per game (1.44). Mixon has been frustrating, but he’s getting heavy volume and has put together back-to-back top-13 fantasy weeks. He’s a borderline top-20 option at running back.
Kareem Hunt played 38 (or 58%) of the Browns’ 66 offensive snaps in his Cleveland debut on Sunday. Hunt was limited to four carries, but the bigger story was his massive role as a receiver. Hunt lined up at wide receiver on nine of his 22 routes and was targeted nine times, which trailed only Odell Beckham Jr. (12) and Jarvis Landry (10) for most on the team. Despite Hunt’s big role, Nick Chubb still handled 20 carries and four targets while playing 80% of the snaps. It appears the Browns will lean on two-back sets, which locks in Chubb as a midrange RB1 and Hunt as a flex option.
Randall Cobb posted a 6-106-1 receiving line on eight targets during Sunday night’s victory against Minnesota’s struggling pass defense. Despite the strong performance, Cobb shouldn’t be a major priority on waivers. Dallas’ slot receiver entered the game having failed to clear 69 yards in a single game this season. That includes fewer than 42 yards in five of eight games. Cobb’s touchdown was his second this season and his first since Week 1. Cobb, who is averaging 5.8 targets per game, remains a shaky flex option in Dallas’ run-first offense.
Desperate for some help at tight end? Rookie Noah Fant is worth a dart throw. The 2019 first-round pick has played 84% of Denver’s offensive snaps since Emmanuel Sanders was traded after Week 7. That’s up from 69% prior to the trade. Fant entered Denver’s Week 10 bye eighth among tight ends in pass routes and fresh off two of his most productive games, having seen eight targets in Week 8 prior to posting a 3-115-1 receiving line in Week 9.
Ty Johnson went down with an injury after only 11 snaps and six touches during Sunday’s loss in Chicago. J.D. McKissic (51 snaps) was the next man up, with Paul Perkins (14) also involved. McKissic was held to 55 yards on 16 touches and Perkins to 18 yards on eight touches. McKissic’s role as the team’s primary receiving back has helped him to back-to-back top-20 fantasy weeks. If Johnson misses Week 11, McKissic would obviously be the top fantasy option, though he’s no more than a flex option in 12-team leagues.
Green Bay Packers
It appears Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s days as a starter in Green Bay are over (at least for now). The second-year receiver played 10 snaps on Sunday, which was well behind Davante Adams (44), Geronimo Allison (35), Allen Lazard (25) and Jake Kumerow (21). Valdes-Scantling was targeted once Sunday and hasn’t cleared three targets in game since Week 4. He also hasn’t caught a pass since Week 8. While Valdes-Scantling can obviously be dropped, Allison (one weekly fantasy finish better than 46th this season) and Lazard (one weekly finish better than 48th) do not need to be rostered.
Duke Johnson has played second fiddle to Carlos Hyde in the carry department this season (149 to 54), but he’s only 29 behind in snaps and has received more targets than his counterpart, 33 to 10. Johnson’s role hasn’t allowed him any top-10 fantasy weeks, but he has produced three top-20 weeks, all of which have come during Houston’s past four games. Granted, Johnson scored in all three games, but he’s provided a solid floor with eight-plus fantasy points in six consecutive outings. Johnson is a fine flex option in PPR leagues.
Facing Miami with both T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell sidelined, Zach Pascal was well positioned for a huge Week 10. Instead, the second-year receiver was held to two catches for 26 yards on seven targets despite playing all but one snap. Pascal has reached 19 fantasy points during two of his past four games, but he has also been under six points during three of his past five outings. Pascal will have some flex appeal next week against the Jaguars if Jacoby Brissett returns, but he obviously has a very low floor.
As touchdowns go, it’d be hard to be more unlucky than Leonard Fournette has been this season. Fournette has managed one touchdown despite a 5.3 OTD. That 4.3 gap is easily highest among running backs and trails only Mike Williams (-4.4) for largest in the league. Fournette entered the Week 10 bye No. 1 among backs in snaps, routes and touches, and ranked third in carries and scrimmage yards. Despite the touchdown troubles, Fournette hasn’t posted a week with fewer than 11 fantasy points and has five top-11 weekly finishes to his name. Fournette’s touchdown deficiencies are going to disappear in a hurry assuming his role doesn’t change following the bye. He’s a strong weekly RB1 play.
Kansas City Chiefs
LeSean McCoy was a surprise healthy scratch on Sunday, opening the door for Damien Williams to take full control of the backfield. Williams played a season-high 74% of the offensive snaps, tallying 109 yards on 24 touches (five receptions) in the game. Williams also went over 100 scrimmage yards last week and has now managed back-to-back top-16 fantasy weeks. Williams’ efficiency has been poor (3.8 YPC, 5.6 YPT), but he’s the clear lead back in the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes-led offense, which locks him in as a solid RB2. Williams should be in lineups against the Chargers in Week 11.
Los Angeles Chargers
What to do with Mike Williams? The unluckiest player in the touchdown department this season, Williams has yet to find the end zone despite a 4.4 OTD (35th-highest in the league) and seven end zone targets (tied for 10th). Williams has delivered 69-plus receiving yards in five of his nine games, but the lack of scoring has limited him to three top-25 fantasy weeks, none of which have been better than 22nd. Williams’ targets are down to 4.75 per game over the past month, which is a concern, but if he continues to see significant work near the goal line, history suggests the touchdowns will come. Williams is a flex option against the Chiefs this week.
Los Angeles Rams
One week after putting up 220 yards on seven catches against the Bengals, Cooper Kupp was held without a single catch on four targets against Pittsburgh. A 2018 Week 6 game in which he left with an injury aside, Kupp entered Week 10 with at least two catches in each of his other 31 career games. Kupp has over 100 receiving yards in five games this season, totaling five touchdowns during those outings. However, he also has 50 or fewer yards and zero touchdowns in his other four games. Jared Goff’s favorite target is averaging 10.0 targets per game, and the Rams don’t play east of Dallas the rest of the season, so he’s a strong bet for plenty of better efforts. Kupp is still in the WR1 discussion.
With Mark Walton suspended and Kenyan Drake traded to Arizona, Kalen Ballage played 88% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps on Sunday. The second-year back continued his efficiency struggles, managing only 43 yards on 20 carries and 2 yards on four targets. Ballage is “up” to 155 yards on 63 touches this season, but he does have a pair of touchdowns (3.2 OTD). Rookies Patrick Laird (seven snaps) and Myles Gaskin (five) combined for five touches on Sunday, but it makes sense for both to play increased roles moving forward. Heavy volume could lead Ballage to a random touchdown or big play, but he’s a very shaky flex play.
Kyle Rudolph’s light has shined a bit brighter since Adam Thielen went down with an injury in Week 7. Rudolph was limited to a total of 11 targets and zero touchdowns during the Vikings’ first six games, but he has impressed all of the other reindeer with 18 receptions and four scores during his past four outings. Despite the touchdown production, Rudolph has cleared three catches and 36 yards in only one game this season. Rudolph will be on the TE1 radar if Thielen misses more time, but he will be more of a touchdown (and/or fog) dependent TE2 once Minnesota’s heavily-targeted No. 1 receiver returns.
New England Patriots
There was a point this season in which some were upset that Sony Michel wasn’t getting enough goal-line work. So much for that. Michel entered the team’s Week 10 bye tied for first in the league with 11 carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Michel has six touchdowns, which aligns well with his 6.7 OTD (third-highest in the league). Michel has picked up where he left off in 2018 by dominating the carries (144 is 112 more than any of his teammates), but he has remained a small part of the passing game (11 targets). Michel has a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks but has finished 37th or worse five times. Michel is best viewed as a flex option with additional value in non-PPR leagues.
New Orleans Saints
So much for limiting his reps. Alvin Kamara returned from a two-game absence Sunday and was on the field for 78% of the Saints’ snaps. Kamara carried the ball only four times in a shocking loss to Atlanta, but he bailed out fantasy investors with eight catches for 50 yards on 10 targets. Latavius Murray produced seven touches for 19 yards on 25% of the snaps. Kamara’s efficiency (4.41 YPC, 1.72 YAC, 6.7 YPT) numbers are just below where he was last season, but a massive drop in goal-line work and touchdowns (2 TD, 3.0 OTD) has limited his fantasy ceiling a bit. Still, the third-year back has produced three top-10 and three-additional top-25 fantasy weeks in seven games. He remains a quality RB1 play.
New York Giants
The Giants may have found a gem in Darius Slayton. Granted, it was against an injury-plagued Jets secondary, but the fifth-round pick went off on Sunday, catching 10 of 14 targets for 121 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Slayton has now scored twice in two of his past three games and has 62-plus receiving yards in four of eight career games. That’s the good. The bad is that Slayton also has four games with 32 or fewer yards and no touchdowns. Additionally, his target share is a near lock to drop significantly if Sterling Shepard returns from his concussion. Slayton should be on rosters, but he’s a boom/bust play and his weekly appeal will depend on several variables, including opponent and Shepard’s status.
New York Jets
Chris Herndon made his de facto 2019 debut on Sunday. The second-year tight end played only 26% of the Jets’ 61 offensive snaps and was then lost to a rib injury. Meanwhile, Ryan Griffin was on the field for 66% of the snaps. Herndon did out-target Griffin 2-to-1 and is certainly a candidate for increased snaps if he returns later this season. Of course, the fractured rib will cost him at least a few weeks, so Herndon needs to be rostered in only dynasty leagues. Griffin will score the occasional touchdown but is not quite a top-20 tight end play.
Darren Waller was held to a 3-40-0 receiving line on five targets against the Chargers in Week 10 and has now has three or fewer catches in three consecutive games. In fact, Waller has failed to clear 53 receiving yards during five of his past six games. The drop in production is obviously a concern, but the good news is that Waller’s role hasn’t otherwise changed. He has been on the field for 91% of Oakland’s offensive snaps and has run a route on 81% of the pass plays. Waller is a strong bet for a rebound game in Week 11 with the struggling Bengals in town.
The Eagles signed old friend Jordan Matthews last week, but he’s a long shot for consistent fantasy success. Eagles wide receivers not named Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and DeSean Jackson (who has appeared in two games) have totaled six targets since Week 4. Matthews could, of course, play a larger role than the likes of Mack Hollins and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, but he’ll still be competing with Jeffery, Agholor, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard for touches in an Eagles offense that has turned to a run-first attack in recent weeks. Matthews is well off the fantasy radar.
After hitting a career high with 69 receiving yards in Week 9, James Washington did it again with 90 yards against the Rams on Sunday. Washington also hit career-best marks in targets (seven) and receptions (six), and he scored his first touchdown since Week 2 of his rookie season. The 2018 second-round pick’s increase in targets (six-plus during three of his past four games) and improved production are a good sign and certainly reason to add him to your bench. However, Week 10 marks his first weekly finish better than 34th this season, and he was on the field for only 53% of the offensive snaps. Washington isn’t a reliable flex just yet.
San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel exploded for an 8-112-0 receiving line on 11 targets against Seattle on Monday Night Football. The rookie set new career-high marks in targets, receptions and yards, while also playing his highest share of the snaps (83%) since Week 1. Samuel’s big night provides some optimism for his future fantasy production. However, he certainly benefited greatly from the absence of George Kittle (26% target share through Week 9) and Emmanuel Sanders (23% target share in two starts with the 49ers before leaving Monday’s game injured). Samuel entered Week 10 with two weekly finishes better than 47th and will be only in the WR3/flex mix against Arizona if Sanders is out.
Jacob Hollister put together yet another strong fantasy effort in Week 10, posting an 8-62-1 receiving line on a career-high eight targets. This after he managed a 4-37-2 line in Week 9. Hollister has now been targeted at least six times in three of his four games. The veteran tight end has bounced around the league a bit but is a good pass-catcher and still only 25 years old. The Seahawks easily lead the NFL in end zone targets, and Hollister will be a candidate to handle a generous chunk of those if he continues to operate as Seattle’s primary receiving tight end. Before rushing to the waiver wire, however, keep in mind that the Seahawks are headed to a bye and will get Ed Dickson back from injured reserve in Week 12.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
O.J. Howard scored his first touchdown of the season and put together his best fantasy point total (14.7) of the season in Week 10. Of course, the 4-47-1 receiving line on a season-high seven targets came against an Arizona defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Prior to the big day, Howard had eclipsed three catches and 35 yards in only one game. The underutilized big man remains a shaky TE2.
The Titans have scored at least three offensive touchdowns during each of Ryan Tannehill’s four starts with the team. The former Dolphins first-round pick has accounted for at least two scores during each of those games. Tannehill has a pair of 300-yard games, a pair of games with at least 37 rushing yards and a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks during the span. In fact, though it was against a relatively light schedule, Tannehill has finished all four of his starts as a top-14 fantasy quarterback. Tannehill is hard to trust, considering his track record since he entered the league in 2012, but he has flashed at times, including an eighth-place finish back in 2014 and, of course, over the past month. The Titans are headed to a bye, and Tannehill will be a streaming option –not a must start — once they return to action.
Terry McLaurin suffered through Washington’s quarterback troubles in recent weeks with fewer than 40 yards in three-consecutive games. This is after managing at least 62 yards and one touchdown during four of his first five NFL games. McLaurin’s 23% target share locks him into the WR3 discussion most weeks, but he’s certainly risky in an offense that has gone three consecutive games without a touchdown.